quote: <font size=1>Originally posted by La Fayette on 01-22-2001 11:41 AM</font> I suppose that dips or spies defending have no effect on sabotaging (though they have an effect on stealing techs, as stated in the book).

quote: <font size=1>Originally posted by La Fayette on 01-22-2001 11:41 AM</font> But I am quite sure that there is a "capital" effect (namely sabotaging is more risky in a capital). This appears in your tests and I experienced it last night, loosing EIGHT vet spies before being able to destroy the city walls of Delhi, proud capital city of the Indians.

12.17 If you choose "give primary target" against the capital or walled city, then a message "Attempting sabotage in enemy capital or against city walls is very risky" appears.

Now, I noticed that this message doesn't appear in 2.42, it appear in Multiplayer only. But your experience tell us it that it is valid for 2.42 too, probably.

quote: <font size=1>Originally posted by La Fayette on 01-22-2001 11:41 AM</font> Losses are 100% with dips, around 50% with non vet spies and around 29% with vet spies (almost certainly higher losses in a capital, but this remains to be tested).

quote: <font size=1>Originally posted by La Fayette on 01-22-2001 11:41 AM</font> IF THERE ARE N IMPROVEMENTS IN THE CITY, ATTACK WITH N+1 DIPS OR SPIES ("using their judgment") and you are sure that the walls will tumble down

quote: <font size=1>Originally posted by La Fayette on 01-22-2001 11:41 AM</font> I concentrated on "how many spies are captured during the attack", then the 2 situations "0,11" and "10" in your log both are one situation "1 spy lost" in my log.

quote: <font size=1>Originally posted by La Fayette on 01-22-2001 11:41 AM</font> 3) What remains to be tested: - vet dips (I don't wish to; I love vet spies, not vet dips)

quote: <font size=1>Originally posted by La Fayette on 01-22-2001 11:41 AM</font> 4) Am I confused? Not at all. I think we are close to the end, since your tests provide results very close to mine.

quote: Originally posted by La Fayette on 01-22-2001 11:56 AM ST I forgot telling you that IMHO my concentration to the number of spies lost makes sense ( in fact I think that having a knowledge about losses is very important for any player, sinceone derives the probability of seeing the walls tumble down directly from that knowledge).

I will concentrate to the question of being captured before the sabotage:
Test 1: We could suppose that 44% spies captured before is 50% in point of fact.

city walls falls for the 1st attempt (captured before 0 times) =14
2nd (captured before 1 times)=8
3rd=5
4rd=1

If the answer to my question is yes, then for a statistically large amount of test
14(1st row)/2 (50%)=(approx.)8 (2nd row)
8/2=5
5/2=1

Lost O = 1
Lost 1 = 7
Lost 2 = 3
Lost 4 = 5
Lost 5 = 0
Lost 6 = 1
Lost 7 = 5
Total = 25
This means 83 spies lost in 20 successful attacks + 5 unsuccessful attacks (due to the fact that I had only 7 spies ready to attack, since I always make tests from savegames and have never opened "cheat mode " up to now).

b) Same with 6 vet spies (capital, walls)

Lost 0 = 8
Lost 1 = 11
Lost 2 = 4
Lost 3 = 1
Lost 4 = 0
Lost 5 = 0
Lost 6 = 1
Total = 25

a)"choose primary target"
"Pile ou face", that is the name of the game in french (I think it is called "heads and tails" in english: you throw a coin and look at what happens, either or).
Look at the example above, if needed: my vet spy stands in front of the walls of Thèbes, then
"pile": the walls tumble down
"face": she's captured by wary Egyptians.

In more scientific terms, there is a probability of 0,5 that the walls of a capital tumble down when attacked by a vet spy. Any new attack is independant from the previous one (just like in the game of "pile ou face" any new coin is independant from the one before, which explains why it might happen to you that, once in a while,a large number of vet spies are captured before the walls tumble down, just like when one goes on playing "red" at the roulette).
Then the Egyptians get a second chance. They may capture the vet spy after the walls have been destroyed. This means a second game of heads and tails (with a probability close to 0,3 that the vet spy gets captured, or 0,7 that she escapes unharmed).

b) What happens if the spy is non vet, or the city is non capital or the improvement is non walls (temple or library,...)?

The program is the same:
test #1: do the walls go down? (yes or no, probability of yes=p1)
test #2 (conditional): if the walls are down, does the spy escape (yes or no, probability of yes=p2).
But the probabilities are different (most risky:capital, walls, non vet spy; least risky: non capital, non walls, vet spy).
From the tests made by SlowThinker and by myself, I derive that the probabilities are probably close to these:
1) Capital, walls, vet spy: p1=0,5 (p2=0,5)
2) Capital, walls, non vet: p1=0,25 (p2=0,25)
3) Capital, non walls, vet spy: p1=0,66 (p2=0,5)
4) Capital, non walls, non vet: p1=0,5 (p2=0,25)
5) Non capital, walls, vet spies: p1=0,6 (p2=0,5)
6) Non capital, walls, non vet: p1=0,4 (p2=0,25)
7) Non capital, non walls, vet spy: p1=0,85 (p2=0,5)
8) Non capital, non walls, non vet: p1=0,7 (p2=0,25)

Spies (vet or non vet) have a choice between 2 methods: "use her judgment" or "choose primary target". Dips always use their judgment.

a) "use her judment"
If you want to make sure that you destroy the walls of the city you are greedily looking at, you should :
- send 1 dip and have a look at the number of improvements inside the city, let us say n;
- then come back next turn with n+1 dips and destroy everything until the walls tumble down (if you are very lucky, dip #1 might destroy the walls, but most commonly you will have to wait until dip #n or dip #n+1).
The method is the same with spies, but losses are lighter (100% with dips, 50% with non vet spies, about 28% with vet spies).

b)"choose primary target"
The 2 main advantages of this method are lighter losses (especially with vet spies) and non destruction of improvements inside the city (which allows you to sell them or use them when the city becomes yours).

NON VET
If the city has few improvements and you are using non vet spies, then the "choose primary target" is not really a good choice, because there is a risk of having many spies captured before the walls tumble down.
If you are in a hurry and don't care too much about the value of the improvements, then let your spy "use her judgment" (with n+1 spies ready, of course).

1) VET

Capital city: 1,38; 0,85
Non capital : 1,09; 0,70

2) NON VET

Capital city: 3,33; 1,95
Non capital : 1,92; 1,17

My conclusion would be (as usual): long live our beloved vet spies.

I think we would have proceed 5 times more tests to have appropriate results. About p2, for example: you set the probability to 0.25 and 0.5 too prematurely. My results were 0.57, 0.31, 0.18, 0.43, 0.66 0.25, 0.23

About p1: I don't believe programmers set all 8 numbers separately. I think more probable is the possibility that they set basic probability and three modifiers for walls, capital and vet status. (Maybe they set that capital and walls won't be cumulative)

Look at this.
1) Capital, walls, vet spy: p1=0,5
5) Non capital, walls, vet spies: p1=0,6

4) Capital, non walls, non vet: p1=0,5
8) Non capital, non walls, non vet: p1=0,7

Non Capital induces increase to 0.6 for the first case and to to 0.7 for the second case.

We know exactly how it works and what to do when attacking any city with dips or spies (and I am quite satisfied with the summary of losses that I published above).
Hence I put the main results on your thread and consider that we have solved the problem of sabotaging (all important results have been given and remaining details have no practical importance).
Thank you for constructive dialog.