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Topic: Population and Demographics |  |
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Beör Warlord Copenhagen, Denmark Aug 2000
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posted September 29, 2000 07:42
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GuysTo repeat myself: Is this really necessary at this point - Demo5-wise May I suggest a new acronym: YAGAYAFII (You Are Getting Ahead of Yourselves And Forgetting the Important Issues) I think YAGAYAFII  And BTW: Losses of manpower during military conflict have had serious impact on society on numerous occasions historically. Richard mentioned WWI. The massive mobilisations combined with the large demand on industrial capacity put serious drains on man-power (which was then replaced by woman-power). This has had immense impact on society.
An ancient example: During the second punic war, romans lost approximately one third of their male population (M Rostovtzeff: The history of Rome). And they were all citizens, not just mercenaries or auxiliary troops. This completely altered Roman society, and the loss of man-power haunted Rome ever since: The three legions lost by Varus in Teutoburgerwald were mostly legionaries from Latium,and they were never rebuilt, because of lack og manpower. [This message has been edited by Beör (edited September 29, 2000).] |
Mark_Everson Clash of Civilizations Project Lead Canton, MI, USA b.02-15-99
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posted September 29, 2000 10:30
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Richard:I have a fairly comprehensive post on how to handle the differing timescales to avoid serious wierdness. The info on how the military and economic scales should interact is in the Military Model III thread. 2nd post in the the thread. A quote from it. "...I think feeding and paying the troops should use up food and money at the same rate as people in the regular economy. If the troops only consumed one month of food and pay per turn, it would be very easy to maintain unrealistically large standing armies." And I agree with Beör that we're probably going a bit far on this for this particular thread. But I don't know right now the best place for this discussion . |
Richard Bruns King NC, USA Nov 1999
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posted September 29, 2000 11:11
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Mark, could you collect all of this kind of information we have and ask Chris to put it on the military model section of the webpage? I read what was already there but it is obviously incomplete. This probably isn't the only thing I am missing, and I don't know where in the maze of threads I an find it. |
Mark_Everson Clash of Civilizations Project Lead Canton, MI, USA b.02-15-99
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posted September 29, 2000 11:40
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Will do, but I need to update the econ model page first, so it'll be a while. [This message has been edited by Mark_Everson (edited September 29, 2000).] |
roquijad Clash of Civilizations Government Model Santiago Nov 1999
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posted September 29, 2000 17:11
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Richard: No, no present cultural attributes or combination sounds good to me to define a "cultural incliniation for f***ing frequency"  Please excuse this a little OT: Mark: I checked you post in the other thread about scales and I agree we simply can't have the whole game in a realistic way regarding econ/civil-military interconnections. We have to choose "flash buildings" or absurd military activities in a given period of time (like unit movement in civ2) or, as you propose, a little of both non-senses. Of course, the player can choose to play the whole game at the one-month scale for both sides of the game and get rid of most of the absurd things. A very long game to play, of course, but that's the player's choice. My question is, Is it possible to change timescales during the game? Can a player during the game choose to switch to the "realistic" (one-month for all) game if he wants? I think that would be great. The player would be choosing what periods to play realisticly and what to play with some non-senses just for speed. At the start of what I would consider a major war for my civ, I'd love to switch to the realistic mode and at the end of it go back to the unrealistic-but-faster game. Can we do that? BTW the conversation about pop-mil interactions above should already consider and accept that non-sense will be there if econ/civil turns aren't of one-month duration. Non-senses are something we'll have to live with for every relationship between the mil model and the rest models, so I don't think we should fight these non-senses. We only have to indentify them in every model (here you have already) and add them to the list. We'll let players know this list so they'll know what they're giving up when choosing a timescale larger than one month. [This message has been edited by roquijad (edited September 29, 2000).] |
roquijad Clash of Civilizations Government Model Santiago Nov 1999
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posted September 29, 2000 17:22
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In my post above I couldn't write the f-word!! Apolyton changed it automacitally to "****". I'm outraged!! I can't believe there's censure here!  LA CENSURA ES UNA REPUTA MIERDA! (They don't have a list of spanish bad words, do they?) [This message has been edited by roquijad (edited September 29, 2000).]
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axi Prince Athens Greece Sep 1999
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posted September 29, 2000 17:34
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It is funny indeed. Imagine a topic about the famous sci fi writer Philip K. **** .  You can use spaces between letters. The censoring machine won't get you this way. |
Mark_Everson Clash of Civilizations Project Lead Canton, MI, USA b.02-15-99
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posted September 29, 2000 19:15
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Rodrigo:Your plan on the timescale thing seems quite reasonable to me. Guys: On the profanity filter, we are stuck with it, its a required part of being hosted here to keep the site profanity-free (at least with respect to the blocked words). Please do not subvert the blocker since I will need to waste time editing your posts to remove those words. I know you don't like it, but those are the rules. This is from Markos and Dan, who run Apolyton: Why do you censor certain words? Because there are lots of people(including us) who don't like reading these kinds of words. The list of censored words may vary depending on the way people use the forums. You can go complain at the Apolyton forum if you like...
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Richard Bruns King NC, USA Nov 1999
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posted April 11, 2001 08:09
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bump.René, let us know what you think. You can certainly take over this model if you want to. Welcome to the team. |
Fiera Prince From Hispania (like Maximus) Mar 2000
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posted April 11, 2001 09:27
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quote:
 Originally posted by roquijad on 09-29-2000 05:22 PM LA CENSURA ES UNA REPUTA MIERDA! (They don't have a list of spanish bad words, do they?)
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Lol!  Sorry, guys, I just didn't expect this in the middle of the Clash Forum...  |
4VAlien Settler Enschede , OV, Holland Apr 2001
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posted April 11, 2001 18:28
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are there files/models already done that i can study? if not i will extract all demands from people from this pretty huge thread and make up something. I still think it has to be simple, cause it should run every turn and speed is often a concern when using java. Maybe later it would be nice to make that kingdom micromanagement model. |
Mark_Everson Clash of Civilizations Project Lead Canton, MI, USA b.02-15-99
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posted April 11, 2001 20:27
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quote:
 Originally posted by 4VAlien on 04-11-2001 06:28 PMare there files/models already done that i can study?
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There is virtually no code yet for the population model if that's what you mean. Right now there is only trivial code relating to it in MapSquarePopulationTurnHandler in the controller package of the code I sent you.Right now all it does is use a very simple algorithm that relates population growth to just food per capita. So the food the people save to eat during the econ phase is saved and consumed during the population phase. Population growth or decline is a direct result. Obviously all the stuff about true nutrition, health care etc. is not done yet. |
4VAlien Settler Enschede , OV, Holland Apr 2001
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posted April 12, 2001 14:52
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PAIN.. i've tried to compile this thread into THE answer but that ain't easy :-(. I think we should at least have 3 cohorts, namely young, working and old. This is only for the reproduction races. I think manufacturing races should have to build certain industrial structures to build themselves, this will cost a some economic power, but then again every produced "person" is directly capable of doing work/military service so if we balance carefully it would be a nice addition to the gameplay. The most difficult is the derived creation. Their growth should be related to others races death. And i have still no idea about the transition from cohort to cohort, what kind of formula shoud be used there?I think that the population model should be run at province level, but i still don't know how large a province is. things i certainly want to use are: -growth is somehow related to food production -of course there's the disease model {duhh}
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4VAlien Settler Enschede , OV, Holland Apr 2001
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posted April 12, 2001 15:01
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i accidentally posted before i was finished..-i think we should run the model at province level but i don't know how complicated the other models are so i will have a look at that. i don't want the population model to be extremely light or heavy in comparison to the other models. (hey.. i'm repeating myself, sorry) -the derived/production races don't need an % workforce cause i think they'll only create usable persons. -the reproduction race would have a varieting % workforce, but i think we can relate that directly to the social model. -to save memory/speed i think we can work out the classes only for provinces, cause generally in a certain area the differences between the squares will be pretty small. questions remaining: -what other elements affect growth? i think there are lots of variables but i don't know all the clash options so i think you will come up with some.
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4VAlien Settler Enschede , OV, Holland Apr 2001
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posted April 12, 2001 15:12
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additions:-i think it's not fair to implement gender, cause the reproduction race would then become extremly vulnerable compared to the other races -recruiting military troops should be taken into account. The people recruited should be removed from the population, and be added again when the unit disbands. -Because the military provides their own supply's there would be no relation to the land the came from. -This influences growth but i think we can calculate without using gender. The population part of the province could contain a value that is made higher when man/women are not equally removed and would slowly stabilize back. -This value could also be used to recalculate the %-age of workforce. (if only this world had always been 100% emancipated this model would've been a lot easier) |
4VAlien Settler Enschede , OV, Holland Apr 2001
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posted April 12, 2001 15:14
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last reply in this series:please give me feedback suggestions, i tried to make something not too simple, and not too complex at the same time. |
Mark_Everson Clash of Civilizations Project Lead Canton, MI, USA b.02-15-99
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posted April 12, 2001 15:51
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Hi 4VAlien:Thanks for getting this area going again! I think you should do the architecture on a map square level. I think F_Smith's comments long ago that we should push data storage down to the lowest possible level is correct here. For now, to make life easier, I think you should do the entire pop model calculations at the map square level also. The economic model is at the square level for now, and it uses at least 20x as much processing power as pop is likely to. So you might as well do it the easy way. If we need to agregate up later it should not be difficult with good design. For now we are following the rule: "Don't optimize prematurely". You can see further ideas about the extreme programming (XP) philosophy we're following in the coding discussion thread if you're interested. I won't say anything about non-human population because there are so many things I need to spend time on before considering that... So I won't comment, but reserve the right to criticize later . Hopefully Richard, who put them in, can discuss that with you. "-to save memory/speed i think we can work out the classes only for provinces, cause generally in a certain area the differences between the squares will be pretty small." Probably correct, but why don't you try it at the square level first for simplicity as I outlined above. "-recruiting military troops should be taken into account. The people recruited should be removed from the population, and be added again when the unit disbands. " Agree! I agree with much of what you say. I will wait for Richard to give you some of the further details you're looking for, because he's much more familiar with the model. If there are any big problems you need info on fast, just let me know, and I'll do my best to come up with something. Thanks again for taking this on! |
4VAlien Settler Enschede , OV, Holland Apr 2001
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posted April 12, 2001 18:19
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ok i will go for square based calculation and humans only, but i would like to have some assitance in modeling the classes , cause i also have to deal with the ethnic groups etc.. which i don't completely understand yet |
Mark_Everson Clash of Civilizations Project Lead Canton, MI, USA b.02-15-99
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posted April 12, 2001 20:01
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Personally I'd say just hold off on the classes and ethnic groups for now. If you want, you could put placeholders in. The reason I'm suggesting you not do those yet is that Gary is going to hook up the govt/social code this weekend (I hope! ) and so he will then know about the architecture of that stuff. Gary is a pro java coder, and can help in figuring out the right archtiecture to use with the population model. I could make guesses, but they wouldn't be well-informed guesses. |
LDiCesare Chieftain La Ferté sous Jouarre France Jan 2001
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posted April 13, 2001 01:51
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One comment about age: If you cut down into young/old/working, how do you consider the lengthening of life? People currently work till they are around 60 year old, but they used to be old much earlier in the Middle Ages, because of disease, eating, crippling... Will it be simple to change the working/old proportion based on social/tech progress? Another question about young: If they study more, they start working later, so the same question goes: how do you map this to the social/tech? |
Gary Thomas Chieftain New Zealand Mar 2001
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posted April 13, 2001 04:28
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quote:

Personally I'd say just hold off on the classes and ethnic groups for now. If you want, you could put placeholders in. The reason I'm suggesting you not do those yet is that Gary is going to hook up the govt/social code this weekend (I hope! ) and so he will then know about the architecture of that stuff. Gary is a pro java coder, and can help in figuring out the right archtiecture to use with the population model. I could make guesses, but they wouldn't be well-informed guesses.
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Um, yeah.I am a pro Java programmer. Architect even. Unfortunately, one of the things I always do (otherwise I would lose my job) is to provide comprehensive test routines for EVERY class I write. For the tech model, I will provide: 1. The tech model 2. The GUI for it 3. The underlying classes 4. Test classes for all of this This will almost certainly be available over the Easter weekend. The govt/social model, if I am to do it, will be to the same standard. I do not expect either to have any bugs or require any patches. Hey! that's the way I survive. I also code very fast, around 200 lines of tested code per day. I do have a lot of trouble lowering my standards. Actually I don't lower my standards at all! People who use my classes (which do a lot of nice things in the GUI area) never have to worry that they do not work. From my inspection of the govt/social model they are well defined, and the tech infrastructure will exactly fit. I REALLY hope to start on them tomorrow. But life ain't always kindly. Right now (8pm Easter Friday) I am finishing the test methods for a class called NamedObjectList which, with its associate classes NamedObject, NamedObjectIterator and NamedObjectRenderer, allow the JList methods to immediately implement any reference to things like the list of Technologies, Applications, Activities, Religions, EthnicGroups, GovernmentIdeologies, or anything else that can be read from an XML file. The XML file stuff is all written and working with test routines. Anything I write is delivered with the test routines. If anyone makes additions or modifications, they can run the test routines and immediately see that the modifications work (or don't, as the case may be). In my view this is a critically important part of XProgramming (see the XP website). Sorry for the rant, but this is where I am coming from, and it is better in the long run. So far I have spent around 300 hours on the tech stuff, mostly on providing a good infrastructure. Mark: what I am doing now is designed to fit the govt/social system into the same paradigm as the tech model. I still expect to send you the tech stuff, complete, this weekend. The govt/social I will try for this weekend, but can't guarantee. I am also negotiating with my ISP to provide a CVS repository for all the code. This will mean that any coder can check out the most up to date code at any time, or check in their latest version. Keep your fingers crossed. As far as the population model is concerned, one of the odd things I have done in my life is to publish a paper on population projections (Thomas, 1970) using "characteristic functions". This has always been one of my interests. So maybe, when I get finished with the coding for the tech and govt/social model, I can help with the model. Around Thursday, with luck. Cheers
[This message has been edited by Gary Thomas (edited April 13, 2001).] |
Mark_Everson Clash of Civilizations Project Lead Canton, MI, USA b.02-15-99
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posted April 13, 2001 07:55
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Laurent:I think the age for the cohort boundaries should just slide as the society changes. On educating the young, I think that will work out ok with the present econ system. Education costs work (services) both for the educators and the educated. So if your young are being highly educated, they are of necessity not doing any other type of labor. Gary: My point was that soon you'd have probably enough experience with the architecture surrounding classes and ethnic groups that you could be able to help as an advisor in specing the population model architecture. You'll undoubtedly be there long before you completly wrap up the social model.  Thanks for the overview. A lot of your post could IMO be usefully crossposted to the coding discussion. Your approach description is valuable as it is, and of course the list facilitators you mention should be known to the other programmers, who don't check all the threads. We could even start a soapbox thread for you to tell us non-pros how it should be done when you see something that doesn't work. [This message has been edited by Mark_Everson (edited April 13, 2001).]
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Richard Bruns King NC, USA Nov 1999
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posted April 13, 2001 08:22
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quote:
 I think we should at least have 3 cohorts, namely young, working and old.
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I of course would prefer a cohort for every five years, but if that is not possible this seems like a good compromise. quote:
 The most difficult is the derived creation. Their growth should be related to others races death. And i have still no idea about the transition from cohort to cohort, what kind of formula shoud be used there?
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Have you ever read the Conqueror's Trilogy by Timothy Zahn? The Elders in those books are an example of a derived race. One was created every time a member of the Zhirrzh race died. A more typical example would be cyborgs. Depending on the technology, some percent of people who die can be turned into this race. We'd simply assume one cohort for this race, since presumably they wouldn't age. The Birth() method simply takes the number of Human deaths and multiplies that by some fraction that depends on the tech level. But Mark is right, we don't have to wory about that yet. It certainly isn't a vital feature. quote:
 -the derived/production races don't need an % workforce cause i think they'll only create usable persons.
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Not necessarily. Some cyborgs might be rich people who pay for teh procedure to stay alive but don't or can't do work. I don't think we should limit functionality. The code would presumably exist already for the normal races. The only real difference between the types of races is the Birth() method. I think they should have the same functionality otherwise. quote:
 -i think it's not fair to implement gender, cause the reproduction race would then become extremly vulnerable compared to the other races
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The other races won't be a problem in the normal game, they are only for sci-fi extensions. I don't think we should reduce normal game functionality just for the possible expansions. The proper functioning of normal races (Humans) is more imporant for the game than the other extra races. Besides, that vulnerability would be probably make a good, challenging scenario. quote:
 The population part of the province could contain a value that is made higher when man/women are not equally removed and would slowly stabilize back.
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I think it would make more sense to simply track the genders seperately. That would probably create less bugs and be more flexible in the long run. |
4VAlien Settler Enschede , OV, Holland Apr 2001
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posted April 13, 2001 08:35
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after reading the info at the following link http://www.krellinst.org/~winther/AiS/population/index.html i made up some code that gives a nice model of population. I tried to make my model match the graphs of population in america as much as possible. It currently matches for about 350 years !!! (1650-2000)I tested scalability and at 15x the calculation was 12% off the original. I'm afraid the difference will be larger over a longer period, and will have a look at that. I'm still thinking about the cohorts... |
Mark_Everson Clash of Civilizations Project Lead Canton, MI, USA b.02-15-99
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posted April 13, 2001 08:53
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Alien4V:I'm glad to hear you're making progress! But we can't say much until we know what exactly Is the model you coded? There are several different things on that page. US population growth was and is heavily influenced by immigration. Is that included? [This message has been edited by Mark_Everson (edited April 13, 2001).] |
4VAlien Settler Enschede , OV, Holland Apr 2001
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posted April 13, 2001 09:59
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i put my current progress on the following page including my code (not really much yet). I'm very happy that you mentioned the immigration thingy cause i did'nt realize that myself!! But with some tweaking in birth/death rate that could surely be taken care of. So that is not included yet, but have a look anyways: http://www.geocities.com/alien_4v/Population/Population.html |
Lord God Jinnai Prince Arnold, Mo 63010 Sep 1999
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posted April 13, 2001 14:59
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Mark: quote:

I think the age for the cohort boundaries should just slide as the society changes. On educating the young, I think that will work out ok with the present econ system. Education costs work (services) both for the educators and the educated. So if your young are being highly educated, they are of necessity not doing any other type of labor.
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While I agree with this, we also need to remember standard of living and basic technological level as well as a offset for lag in implementing changes do to education and technolgical and medical breathrus. This represents the fact that in many developing countries children after certain age are considered workers as well as children and older generation can still work, although usually not as much nor at the same jobs.Rich: On cyborgs, I know this isn't relavent right now, but the person doesn't haveto be dead to become a cyborg and can still age (putting in cybernetic parts when the person is young and replacing them as they age or using nanotech to have them adapt). |
4VAlien Settler Enschede , OV, Holland Apr 2001
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posted April 18, 2001 14:21
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forgot to tell ya, but i'm at my parents home this week so there's no developing cause i'm having a vacation and catching up with my courses at the same time ( |
Simon Loverix Settler Tongeren, Belgium Apr 2001
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posted April 19, 2001 12:04
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Is there any population when the games starts, apart from Civilizations? If there's not, this is a possibility (which I already posted in the ecology tread).Tribes and ecological provinces When farming started, the human population was 6,000,000 and appr. 90% of the land mass was inhabited by humans. 6,000,000 people / 0.9*0.3*510,066,000 km˛ = a population of 435 people/10,000 km˛. In The Beginning each inhabited eco-province would have its own tribe, accustomed to the climate, food and with appropriate customs to sustain themselves in that province. For example, a tribe in a hilly forest might be hunter-gatherers, while a tribe on the low-covered plains might be herders, driving around their herd; a tribe in a river ecological province might already be settled and farm minimally. Such a tribe has at most one center that is more densely populated then the average and is centre of the authority in the tribe. Those tribes might develop into civilizations at any time; they can also remain tribal, which is what most will do (until they are forced to modernize in some imperialist's empire). On an earth-sized planet there will be appr. 13,771 squares inhabited. I suggest ecological provinces AS BIG AS POSSIBLE to keep them to a reasonable number to start with. An average size of 200 squares would give appr. 75 provinces on land mass, 25 provinces in oceans, seas, etc. If civilizations grow beyond tribal structures, they will divide their territory into provinces. If such a province doesn't match an existing ecological province, the ecological province is simply divided into two parts: one outside and one inside the human province. They then form two separate provinces, that are checked separately for changes, since one suffers (most likely) from human influence, and the others doesn't.
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Mark_Everson Clash of Civilizations Project Lead Canton, MI, USA b.02-15-99
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posted April 19, 2001 13:47
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quote:
 Originally posted by Simon Loverix on 04-19-2001 12:04 PM Is there any population when the games starts, apart from Civilizations?
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The current plan is to have widely spread people, but they will all be part of one civilization or another. But civilizations won't be limited to the major players - so the number of civs could easily be of order 100 if the player desires. Some however will have no centralized control, and be merely groups with similar culture with at most local-level govt. If the tech level were also low these would be analagous to your tribes. (Which I take to mean a Chiefdom or other form of organization lower than a state). The problem I see with your approach is it could give literally thousands of little tribes, which is certainly more realistic, but is probably not of significant benefit to the player. Other than the limitations I've noted above I think your proposal is pretty good. Are you interested in refining it in light of the new info I've provided? -Mark |
Simon Loverix Settler Tongeren, Belgium Apr 2001
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posted April 20, 2001 03:23
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That's about what I had in mind (about hundred tribes/infant civ's).The main goal of the ecology-linked tribes was to simulate the normal spread of the human species before civilization. Making them evolve sometimes could 1) make the step from non-civilized to civilized smaller and thus more realistic and 2) provide a starting point for civ's that start later in the game. This would lessen the feel of having a civ placed at a random location on a bare map. Those tribes could also be used for generating barbarian hordes, so they don't appear out of the void. Real Life is becoming rather pressing next week, so I probably will be out for so long. | |