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Topic: Disaster Model v1.1 |  |
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Lord God Jinnai Prince Arnold, Mo 63010 Sep 1999
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posted July 20, 2000 00:11
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quote:

But first LGJ, I have two questions for you, since you brought this up, did you want hurricane death to be a minimum variance of 0-.01% or 0-1%, after the discovery of meteorology (or a certain level of it)? The reason I'm asking is that you wrote both in two different places; either way is fine with me, I'll just make it whatever you suggest. And second, on disaster affecting research, isn't that the government's (i.e. the player's) choice whether or not to "beef up" R&D of techs that may help prevent disasters (or reduce their effects)? I know that some techs will come from the people, but again isn't it the people's choice whether or not to research this?
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1> 0-1%...the former (0-.01% is too small and really unrealistic unless you have total control of the weather, in which case you'd not even let that hurricane form ness (unless it was for enviroemental reasons...even so it would be planned so no loss of life was done). 2> Yes and no. This depends on the type of government structure and how reasearch is done. Not all scientific research is done by the government, in fact until recently almost none was except for specific uses. Still many technologies are started by indivisuals or companies. quote:

Does anyone have a reliable source to get the average Earth temp. from? I pulled 84 off of a web page, but I've visited many others and nearly all have different numbers.
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Try just going to someplace that would be reliable that's all i haveto say. Someplace that tracks this would be the best place, not a secondary source if possible. Also since we're using this stuff, we should start making records of where we get this info if its not common knowledge. |
Richard Bruns Prince NC, USA Nov 1999
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posted July 27, 2000 20:38
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The need for close cooperation between the Ecology and Disaster models became clear after after I read the recent disaster model update. If we do not work together closely, there will be a lot of duplicated effort and potential disagreements. Some of this was evident in the recent Disaster Model post.For example, I have already dealt with pollution and radiation extensively in the Ecology model. Also, my proposals for water treatment in tiles would change the way droughts and floods are dealt with. In addition to these major overlaps, there are a lot of minor things. My proposal for the map generation includes wind vectors that could be used for hurricane movement. I have proposed seven climate sones per hemisphere and the disaster model uses old data and is based on four climate zones per hemisphere. If we do not resolve these issues now, the two models could lose all hope of working together. I have a proposal for splitting the responsibility so that the two models can work together without conflict or overlap. Toubado_Koomi has a lot of good ideas for modeling the effects of disasters on the civilization, and I like his plans for this aspect of the model. The ecology model does a good job of modeling the natural environment, but I haven't done very well with modeling how these things affect the people. So I propose that the ecology model be responsible for generating ecological changes and most natural disasters. The disaster model would then define how these changes and disasters affect the civilization. For issues where man impacts the environment, the disaster model would generate the change and the ecology model would define how the change affects the environment. For example, the ecology model would generate a drought in an ecological province and define its severity using the NWR, PWR, and vegetation in the province. The disaster model would then take this drought and describe its effect on the people in the province and the civilization. In the case of pollution, the disaster model would generate the pollution and define its severity. The ecology model would then model how this pollution changes the natural environment. Global climate changes due to human activity would be a bit more complex. The initial climate change would be defined by the disaster model. The ecology model would then change the natural environment and generate disasters based in the climate change. The disaster model would then describe the impact of these disasters on the civs. I think that this split would allow the two models to work together with few problems. The information traded between the models would be concise and easily understood, and each sphere of responsibility would be well defined. If this is acceptable, I will create a third draft of the ecology model based on this new delegation of responsibility. I will add routines for generating disasters and take away the parts that describe how the changes affect the people. If my ideas are not acceptable, we will need an alternative way to split responsibility between the two models. If you have a beter idea, please post it. |
Lord God Jinnai Prince Arnold, Mo 63010 Sep 1999
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posted July 28, 2000 10:58
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quote:
 Originally posted by Richard Bruns on 07-27-2000 08:38 PM In addition to these major overlaps, there are a lot of minor things. My proposal for the map generation includes wind vectors that could be used for hurricane movement.
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I thought you knew that the main driving force that determines a huricane's direction is not the wind currents, but the water currents. |
Toubabo_Koomi Clash of Civilizations Disease & Natural Disasters Models
Oct 1999
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posted July 28, 2000 13:18
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Richard,That sounds real good, and is what I had in mind also. With the two models working together I think we can do a really good job on pollution, especially. |
Richard Bruns Prince NC, USA Nov 1999
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posted July 28, 2000 22:16
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LGJ: I didn't know that. The ecology model also has water vectors, so we can use those instead.Toubado_Koomi: I'm glad we agree. I'll start working on the revised Ecology model. Pollution could be a bit tricky. Some of the effects of pollution, like the disease and unhappiness, are independent of the environment. Thus, the disaster model can handle these aspects from start to finish. The consequences of pollution affecting the natural environment would probably be a three step process like global climate changes. It would probably be easier if the disaster model treats all changes the same way, no matter what caused the changes. If a land value decrease due to pollution is treated the same way as a decrease due to erosion, our jobs will be easier. This shouldn't be too much of a loss in accuracy. So the basic process would go something like this: 1) Disaster model generates pollution and assigns severity values. Global climate change is also calculated. Direct effects of these are calculated and applied. 2) Ecology model makes changes to the environment due to the human influences calculated in step one. At the same time, all of the natural environmental change routines are run. 3) Disaster model decides how all environmental changes from step 2 affect the civ. How does this sound? |
Lord God Jinnai Prince Arnold, Mo 63010 Sep 1999
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posted July 28, 2000 23:05
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Well hurricanes use both, but the main control mechanism for their paths is the ocean currents. They tend to seek out warm water. |
Toubabo_Koomi Clash of Civilizations Disease & Natural Disasters Models
Oct 1999
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posted July 29, 2000 00:13
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Richard,An example would help here, I think I know what you're saying but I'm not positive. LGJ, I don't know where u live, but I live in Louisiana, a hurricane "hotspot", therefore I kinda watch these things. And while water is a factor, it's more in the creation and strengthening, not where the hurricane will ultimately hit. The main driving force in it's final destination is the surrounding weather or pressures, the highs and Lows, I remember one hurricane (can't remember the exact name) that lingered in the same spot for a week because of a high that was positioned over LA, but when the high was replaced by a low, it moved in quick. But since we don't have that in the game, ocean currents are probably a good way to go, though they tend to travel in a North westerly direction - the hurricanes in this hemisphere tend to form off the coast of Africa as tropical depressions, then move across the Atlantic to the Gulf of Mexico following the Gulf stream (so you're right about ocean currents here, but not in final destination ), though in recent years some have hit much higher on the Atlantic coast (possibly a global warming thing, some predict). I really don't know about those in the Eastern Hemisphere, except they form in the Pacific and hit southeastern Asia, so they seem to follow the same Northwesterly pattern. |
Toubabo_Koomi Clash of Civilizations Disease & Natural Disasters Models
Oct 1999
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posted August 13, 2000 05:16
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LGJ, actually .01% is realistic, actually more than realistic. Most hurricanes currently in the U.S. kill less than 20 people, which is why I opted for 0%, though it is more than dependant on meteorology, I figured basing it on that would be the easiest way to go, except that I remember now, with the tech system I can base it off of any number of techs of any value I choose, so I'll probably do something like that, several techs of relatively high levels equals 0% casualties.And, like I said, isn't that the people's choice whether or not to invest in more R&D of disaster-preventing techs? After all the people will have a choice in what they devolop right?, it won't be simple you do more of this you do more RP's in that right? BTW, Richard, Your post on July 27 2000, is what I meant by a good climate (ecology) model, and good disaster model working together, could create better results than a disaster model alone.  And I just watched a show on discovery channel about hurricanes which stated that wind is the driving force on where they go, I thought it was oceans, just like you LGJ, but maybe we were wrong. Although the point I mentioned about highs and lows still applies, it is mute from the Clash standpoint, so Richard may be right in using wind vectors instead of ocean currents. |
Richard Bruns Prince NC, USA Nov 1999
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posted August 13, 2000 12:48
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Version three of the Ecology model will take longer than I thought. In addition to the changes I will make for the disaster model cooperation, there are the following issues to be worked out:Month Based ecology model that includes seasonal variations (required because the game turns will last less than a year) Lake and ocean farming Increased farm sites with tech level Swamp/Forest clearing system Revised Water and Land calculations Also, I will be switching to an object oriented model, which will take some more time to work out. This is especially true because I am in the middle of learning OO design techniques. So expect it to take a few more weeks, and I apologise in advance for the delay. [This message has been edited by Richard Bruns (edited August 13, 2000).] |
Lord God Jinnai Prince Arnold, Mo 63010 Sep 1999
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posted August 13, 2000 14:54
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quote:
 LGJ, actually .01% is realistic, actually more than realistic. Most hurricanes currently in the U.S. kill less than 20 people, which is why I opted for 0%, though it is more than dependant on meteorology, I figured basing it on that would be the easiest way to go, except that I remember now, with the tech system I can base it off of any number of techs of any value I choose, so I'll probably do something like that, several techs of relatively high levels equals 0% casualties.
 | See the problem there is the tech levels would haveto be higher than even they are now....well maybe not for huricanes...most damage today in industrial nations is to property damage. quote:
 And, like I said, isn't that the people's choice whether or not to invest in more R&D of disaster-preventing techs? After all the people will have a choice in what they devolop right?, it won't be simple you do more of this you do more RP's in that right?
 | Yes and no...You see it is partly there concern, but because the government wants to see as it might be helping out its citizens it will do R&D also for prevention. quote:
 And I just watched a show on discovery channel about hurricanes which stated that wind is the driving force on where they go, I thought it was oceans, just like you LGJ, but maybe we were wrong. Although the point I mentioned about highs and lows still applies, it is mute from the Clash standpoint, so Richard may be right in using wind vectors instead of ocean currents.
 | How old was that show? They sometimes show programs a few years old and this was only discovered...proved last year. |
Toubabo_Koomi Clash of Civilizations Disease & Natural Disasters Models
Oct 1999
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posted August 14, 2000 01:51
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1. the tech levels wouldn't need to be higher than today's. Like I said currently, and as far back as I can remember, no hurricane has killed more than 50 people, but then again I'm just over 20 yrs old.2. I don't know how old the show was, but it played only a few days ago, and I've never seen it before, which means it's probably fairly new, because when I do watch TV, I usually watch the discovery channel or TLC |
Lord God Jinnai Prince Arnold, Mo 63010 Sep 1999
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posted August 14, 2000 02:35
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1. Well the thing is there is 3 reasons for this, 1 is the weather forcasting, but the major reason is good transportation system we have and good orgainizations (moreso than other places) of getting people out. If it weren't for highways, things would proabably be differnt. So you haveto remeber there are many factors in there.2. Check that out if you can, that is important because i heard on another TLC program last year that they had recently gotten enough proof to 'prove that myth' wrong. This doesn't mean wind currents don't affect them, but for the most parts it doesn't. They use this from several sources. They say that hurricanes have typically gone completely differnt directions from wind currents after forming because they seem to follow the warm waters closely. |
Toubabo_Koomi Clash of Civilizations Disease & Natural Disasters Models
Oct 1999
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posted August 15, 2000 00:55
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1. I know, and eventually I'll get around to getting all the little variables in there.2. I'll look into it, and let you know what I find. |
Whitemage Settler Tennessee,USA Nov 2000
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posted November 24, 2000 15:40
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This looks like a good model, but keep in mind its not essential.Global warming: I favor the idea of randomly determining a general trend (such as warming/cooling) that will shape the basic patterns. More miner results can be random(though most should be bad; you don’t want players wanting global warming!).
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Lord God Jinnai Prince Arnold, Mo 63010 Sep 1999
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posted November 28, 2000 13:31
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quote:
 Originally posted by Whitemage on 11-24-2000 03:40 PM This looks like a good model, but keep in mind its not essential.Global warming: I favor the idea of randomly determining a general trend (such as warming/cooling) that will shape the basic patterns. More miner results can be random(though most should be bad; you don’t want players wanting global warming!).
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I disagree with your first point and pretty much agree with your second point.1> I haveto disagree with this because almost every model has a reason to be implimented, even if it is only on the most basic level. Disasters are there for a reason. Their generally random events that the player deals with and those that have more patterns and are more active (such as landslides in Japan, tornadoes in the midwest, volcanic eruptions along the pacific) force societies to evolve to deal with those problems or perish. 2> I have little argument here except there should be some basis for picking the type of trend over another rather than being 100% random. | |