Gold is the key. I ran a series of tests involving different numbers of cities and different amounts in the treasury and the results were pretty consistent. (Note: Tested using Fantastic Worlds and MGE at Deity.)1) There are at least three minimum demand amounts - 50, 75, & 100 Gold. During the course of the test, the minimum started at 50, grew to 75 and ultimately reached 100 by the time the test ended. Unfortunately I have not been able to pin down what leads to this growth. It may be related to number of cities and/or Techs.
2 If your treasury has more than twice the minimum (and it doesn't matter how much more), the Barbarians will demand half. If you have an odd amount of gold, the Barbarian demand is rounded down. So if your treasury has 203 gold, they'll ask for 101.
3) If your treasury has less than the minimum (49, 74, or 99), there is no demand, just conquest.
4) Barbarians never demand tribute from a city with defenders. The "threat" will only occur after they kill the last defender and IF they have at least one unit with movement points.
5) Ever wonder why there are Barbarian Tribe Names in the City.txt file? There's no such thing as Barbarian Settlers, and if you cheat them into existence they won't found a city. I think this is the answer - it's part of the "Barbarian Threat" message. The text box reads as follows:
"The Leader of the Barbarian [Tribe Name here] has sent us a message. "We shall mercilessly sack the city of ### unless you pay us ### gold at once!""
A test involving 10 different cities generated threats from 9 different tribes. The Burgundians threatened my capital, and then it was Avars, Frisians, Vandals, Huns, etc threatening the other cities. There was no discernible pattern. First came the Burgundians (9th on the city.txt list), followed by the Avars (10th), Frisians (15th), Vandals (11th), Huns (1st), Ostrogoths (3rd), etc. The first time a city is threatened, the choice of Barbarian tribe appears to be random. However, the SAME tribe will ALWAYS threaten the same city. Thus the capital was always threatened by the Burgundians.
For most civers this is, at best, marginally interesting. On the other hand, scenario designers might find it quite useful so I'm going to "reprint" this on the Scenario League Forum.
Thanks to Hendrik, Sten, DaveV, and Smash for your insights.
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